Statistics Discussion Sample Essay.
Forecasting
Student Name
Institution Affiliation
Answer a
1). 3 month moving average = 275.
Takes average of the last three months.
2). Exponential Smoothing model = 289.15.
3). Linear trend model =247.13.
Answer b
I’d opt for Linear method since the data contains trends.
Answer c
Period from May to September experience greatest seasonal impact. Very clear from the linear chart.
Answer d
Forecast equation yt+h|t=ℓt+hbt.
Level equation ℓt=αyt+(1−α)(ℓt−1+bt−1).
Trend equation bt=β∗(ℓt−ℓt−1)+(1−β∗)bt−1.
where ℓt denotes an estimate of the level of the series at time t, bt denotes an estimate of the trend (slope) of the series at time t, α is the smoothing parameter for the level, 0≤α≤1 and
0≤α≤1, and β∗ is the smoothing parameter for the trend, 0≤β∗≤1.
References[edit]
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