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# Statistics Discussion Sample Essay

Statistics Discussion Sample Essay.

Forecasting

Student Name

Institution Affiliation

1). 3 month moving average = 275.

Takes average of the last three months.

2). Exponential Smoothing model = 289.15.

3). Linear trend model =247.13.

I’d opt for Linear method since the data contains trends.

Period from May to September experience greatest seasonal impact. Very clear from the linear chart.

Forecast equation  yt+h|t=ℓt+hbt.

Level equation ℓt=αyt+(1−α)(ℓt−1+bt−1).

Trend equation bt=β∗(ℓt−ℓt−1)+(1−β∗)bt−1.

where ℓt denotes an estimate of the level of the series at time t, bt denotes an estimate of the trend (slope) of the series at time t, α is the smoothing parameter for the level, 0≤α≤1 and

0≤α≤1, and β∗ is the smoothing parameter for the trend, 0≤β∗≤1.

#### References

1. ^ “Statistics”. Oxford Reference. Oxford University Press. January 2008. ISBN 978-0-19-954145-4.
2. ^ Romijn, Jan-Willem (2014). “Philosophy of statistics”Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
3. ^ “Cambridge Dictionary”.
4. ^ Dodge, Y. (2006) The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms, Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-920613-9
5. Jump up to:a b Lund Research Ltd. “Descriptive and Inferential Statistics”. statistics.laerd.com. Retrieved 2014-03-23.
6. ^ “What Is the Difference Between Type I and Type II Hypothesis Testing Errors?”About.com Education. Retrieved 2015-11-27.
7. ^ Moses, Lincoln E. (1986) Think and Explain with Statistics, Addison-Wesley, ISBN 978-0-201-15619-5. pp. 1–3
8. ^ Hays, William Lee, (1973) Statistics for the Social Sciences, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, p.xii, ISBN 978-0-03-077945-9
9. ^ Moore, David (1992). “Teaching Statistics as a Respectable Subject”. In F. Gordon; S. Gordon (eds.). Statistics for the Twenty-First Century. Washington, DC: The Mathematical Association of America. pp. 14–25ISBN 978-0-88385-078-7.
10. ^ Chance, Beth L.; Rossman, Allan J. (2005). “Preface” (PDF). Investigating Statistical Concepts, Applications, and Methods. Duxbury Press. ISBN 978-0-495-05064-3.

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